Impact of Precipitation and Climate Change on Annual Production of Forage Species ina Semi-Arid Zone: Case Study in Medea, Algeria

Forage crops are used as livestock food. Therefore, any anomalies or drops in their quantity or quality will influence the milk and meat markets. The years 2021/2022/2023 saw a real crisis in dairy products, largely attributed to the lack of forage and the country’s meteorological factor. There is a high correlation between forage production and the level of humidity. The objectives of this study are to compare the production of the main forage species in the Wilaya of Medea during 2016/17 and 2021/22. In addition, we want to characterize forage production by studying a number of variables, namely the areas devoted to this crop, the species grown, the crop management, the rainfall, the harvested crops, etc. Findings show a very strong correlation between precipitation and natural grassland forage production (0.8660). This implies a strong upward trend in natural grassland production with increasing precipitation. Moreover, the interaction between the production and the area (production x area) was highly significant, indicating that the relationship between production and the cultivated area depends on the type of forage. The maximum achievable yield for the artificial oat-vegetable was obtained in 2021 and 2017 seasons, with almost 85.66 and 41.16 t ha^-1, respectively. On the other hand, the minimum yield was obtained in the season of 2022, with almost 0.56 t h^-1 in the natural grassland, despite its large cultivated area occupied during this season. Other species showed variations in area and production. There were seasons when no crops were grown in the Wilaya, except in 2017 for natural alfalfa and in 2018 for natural oat vetch. This situation impacts the region’s forage stocks.